Betfair: Burnham 94% to be next PM
Betfair implied probability put Andy Burnham at 94% to become the next Prime Minister following the Makerfield result.
Snapshot · The Rest Is Politics
545. Burnham Beats Reform: Britain’s Next Prime Minister?
Explore episode
Jun 19, 2026
Where this was said
Should There Be a Contest or a Coronation?
At 20:28 · chapter starts 18:20
The discussion turns to process: should Labour hold a full leadership contest or allow Burnham to walk in unopposed? Rory Stewart argues in favour of a contest — Kamala Harris never had one, Theresa May's coronation was awkward, and even a brutal contest like the 2019 Conservative race helped Boris Johnson emerge stronger. He suggests Wes Streeting should stand to offer a different vision, giving the party and public a genuine choice. Alastair Campbell is less convinced: a contest that forces Burnham and Streeting to say extreme things to appeal to different Labour electorates could be destructive and ultimately provide less democratic legitimacy than the 60,000 votes Burnham just won in a real election. His money is on a coronation, and Betfair — with Burnham at 94% — seems to agree. He also raises the question of what Burnham does differently on policy: non-doms, energy, foreign affairs, tech and growth all need clearer answers.
Peak Reform Is Behind Us
Despite topping national polls, Reform UK has now lost three consecutive parliamentary by-elections — to Plaid in Caerphilly, the Greens in Gordon and Denton, and Labour in Makerfield. The money scandals, Russia links, and Tory retreads like Jenrick and Braverman are capping Farage's ceiling.
Similar snapshots
Media: 90% negative coverage 10 years ago
Kalanick estimates that a decade ago, 90% of media coverage of tech business was negative, treating companies like political targets.
Largest crime drop since 1937
2024–2025 marked the single largest decrease in violent crime and murder in the US since 1937.
Violent crime down 9% in 2024–25
From 2024 to 2025, violent crime decreased 9%, property crime decreased 12.4%, and motor vehicle theft decreased 23%.
Ebony Alert went into effect January 1, 2024
California's Ebony Alert Program, designed for the swift recovery of missing Black youth and women, officially went into effect on January 1, 2024.
UK tourist ETA costs $20 to apply
Andrew Santino discovered that American tourists now need to pay $20 to apply for an Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) to visit the UK, starting January 2025.
Kay Classman, 28, posed as a 16-year-old student
Kay Classman, a 28-year-old woman, was arrested for repeatedly enrolling in a Bronx high school posing as a 16-year-old student across multiple school districts.
16% of Americans: 9/11 inside job
A poll around 2011 found that 16% of Americans believed 9/11 was an inside job, illustrating how viral misinformation had already embedded itself in public opinion before social media peaked.
$300K debate offer to Candace Owens
Andrew Wilson offered Candace Owens $300,000 to debate her Charlie Kirk conspiracy theory, but she refused.
Only 11 killed by Israeli pager bombs
According to the podcast, only 11 people were killed by the coordinated Israeli pager attack on Hezbollah operatives, despite widespread detonations.
