Talen Energy trades at a $25B enterprise value vs. $45B replacement cost — buying it today is like buying the grid at half price before AI forces a power supercycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Talen Energy trades at a $25B enterprise value vs. $45B replacement cost — buying it today is like buying the grid at half price before AI forces a power supercycle.
TL;DR
At the All-In Liquidity Summit's Best Ideas Pitch Competition, four professional investors presented their top trades live. Aaron Cowen (Suvretta Capital) pitched MGM Resorts as a hidden Asian casino play with Barry Diller's bid providing a floor [1] — Aaron Cowen "Barry Diller's $48/share bid provides a floor, but MGM's real upside is a $2B EBITDA Osaka casino opening in 2030 and 300,000 sq ft of dark…" 02:29 ; Dan Dreyfus (Bornite Capital) made the case for Talen Energy as a nuclear and gas power producer trading at a steep discount to replacement cost [2] — Dan Dreyfus "The PJM grid operator needs 106 gigawatts of new power in just one region of the US within 10 years — roughly the size of Japan's entire gr…" 33:05 ; Oleg Nodelman (EcoR1) introduced Aktis Oncology's radiopharmaceutical platform as a potential billion-dollar biotech [3] — Oleg Nodelman "Aktis Oncology has a $500M enterprise value, cash to last 3+ years, and initial clinical data coming in Q1 2027. If one program hits, the c…" 35:20 ; and Kyle Samani (Multicoin) pitched GEODNET, the world's largest RTK precision-location network, as a capital-efficient crypto asset [4] — Chamath Palihapitiya "The audience of 150 investors gave 50% of votes to Talen Energy's Dan Dreyfus. But the bestie vote flipped the result: MGM's Aaron Cowen wo…" 54:51 . MGM won the bestie vote; Talen won the audience vote.
All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition features four professional investors pitching their top trades live at the All-In Liquidity Summit: Aaron Cowen (Suvretta Capital) on MGM Resorts, Dan Dreyfus (Bornite Capital) on Talen Energy, Oleg Nodelman (EcoR1 Capital) on Aktis Oncology, and Kyle Samani (Multicoin Capital) on GEODNET.
Chamath explains the Best Ideas Pitch Competition format, modeled on the Sohn Foundation conference. He recounts his own pitches: Amazon (2015), Tesla (2016), and the infamous Box-over-NVIDIA call in 2017.
Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts as an Asian casino play: Barry Diller's 26% stake and $48 bid provide a floor, while a 2030 Osaka casino and Dubai optionality could push the stock from $48 to $100–$150.
Dan Dreyfus explains the anatomy of a power cycle and argues the US faces a mandatory AI-driven energy buildout. Talen Energy — 2 GW nuclear + 6 GW gas — trades at $25B EV vs $45B replacement cost.
Oleg Nodelman uses a military analogy to explain the history of cancer treatment before pitching Aktis Oncology — a radiopharmaceutical biotech with clinical data due in 2027 and Eli Lilly as a strategic backer.
Kyle Samani pitches GEODNET — the world's largest decentralized RTK network — covering 80% of the global population with 22,000 nodes, $11M ARR growing 3x annually, and 80% revenue used to buy back GEO tokens.
Chamath, Jason, Friedberg, and guest Gavin Baker give feedback and rank the pitches. The audience of 150 gives 50% to Talen; the bestie vote flips the result and MGM wins.
Chapter 1 · 00:00
Chamath explains the Best Ideas Pitch Competition format, modeled on the Sohn Foundation conference. He recounts his own pitches: Amazon (2015), Tesla (2016), and the infamous Box-over-NVIDIA call in 2017.
Chamath modeled the All-In Best Ideas event on the Sohn Foundation conference. He called Amazon a trillion-dollar company in 2015 and was laughed out of the room by David Einhorn. In 2017, instead of picking NVIDIA, he picked Box — the one regret that still haunts him.
Barry Diller's $48/share bid provides a floor, but MGM's real upside is a $2B EBITDA Osaka casino opening in 2030 and 300,000 sq ft of dark casino space in Dubai. Aaron Cowen says the stock could hit $100-$150 from the current high $40s.
Chapter 2 · 02:31
Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts as an Asian casino play: Barry Diller's 26% stake and $48 bid provide a floor, while a 2030 Osaka casino and Dubai optionality could push the stock from $48 to $100–$150.
Barry Diller has aggressively accumulated MGM Resorts stock to 26% ownership and made a formal bid at $48 per share.
Japan's existing gambling market (pachinko and horse racing) is roughly $40 billion, larger than both Macau ($30B) and Las Vegas ($10B).
MGM's license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan — estimated at $2B EBITDA on their 40% stake — is valued at roughly $50 per share of standalone upside.
Adding Vegas ($60), Japan ($50), and a Dubai casino option ($40–50), Aaron Cowen estimates MGM could be worth over $100–$150 per share, against a current price in the high $40s.
Vegas assets (~$60/share) + Japan ($50/share) + Dubai optionality ($40-50/share) = $100-$150 stock from the high $40s. And Barry Diller, who is a financial buyer not a strategic one, has now shown his cards. Don't tender.
Power demand tracks GDP until a technological breakthrough hits — like appliances, then computers, now AI. The US had 2x China's power capacity two decades ago; China now has 3x ours. Talen Energy sits at the epicenter of a mandatory infrastructure buildout with no room for failure.
Chapter 3 · 13:07
Dan Dreyfus explains the anatomy of a power cycle and argues the US faces a mandatory AI-driven energy buildout. Talen Energy — 2 GW nuclear + 6 GW gas — trades at $25B EV vs $45B replacement cost.
Chapter 4 · 27:19
Oleg Nodelman uses a military analogy to explain the history of cancer treatment before pitching Aktis Oncology — a radiopharmaceutical biotech with clinical data due in 2027 and Eli Lilly as a strategic backer.
EcoR1 Capital has returned 10x to investors since its 2013 inception, compounding at 20% annually, growing from $13M to $2.5B AUM.
Chemo is carpet bombing. Immunotherapy is recruiting local allies. Radiopharmaceuticals are micro drones: 2-centimeter precision, single-cell blast radius, autonomous targeting. Aktis Oncology has built the platform to deliver any radioactive payload to any target — and the data readout is less than a year away.
Talen Energy trades at a $25B enterprise value versus a $45B replacement cost. At 7x free cash flow on a $50/share FCF base, with comparable infrastructure at 15x, the equity should more than double just doing nothing. If power prices rise and data center deals accelerate, you get $1,050.
Talen Energy owns 2 gigawatts of nuclear power and 6 gigawatts of natural gas baseload power.
Talen Energy can be purchased at a $25B enterprise value while its replacement cost is $45B, implying the equity alone should more than double just to reach replacement cost.
The US started the current cycle with 2x China's power capacity; today China has 3x the US's generation capacity.
The PJM grid operator needs 106 gigawatts of new power in just one region of the US within 10 years — roughly the size of Japan's entire grid today. Supply chain constraints make this virtually impossible, locking in scarcity for existing producers like Talen.
The PJM grid operator forecasts a need for 106 gigawatts of new power in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland region alone over the next decade.
Microsoft agreed to pay Constellation Energy $100 per megawatt-hour for 20 years to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor, vs. a market price of $50/MWh.
With power at $50/MWh on the open market, Microsoft agreed to pay Constellation Energy $100/MWh for 20 years to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor. The hyperscalers' desperation is now creating permanent structural demand at premium prices.
Aktis Oncology has a $500M enterprise value, cash to last 3+ years, and initial clinical data coming in Q1 2027. If one program hits, the company could be worth $10 billion — or get acquired by Lilly, which backstopped its IPO with $100M. The moat: China can't replicate actinium-based radiopharmaceuticals.
Aktis Oncology has a $1 billion market cap and $500 million enterprise value, with a cash stockpile lasting over 3 years past critical 2027 data milestones.
Aktis Oncology's $300M IPO was 18 times oversubscribed and backstopped by a $100 million order from Eli Lilly.
Talen Energy is projected to generate $50 per share of free cash flow annually even with zero new deals, on a stock in the high $300s — roughly 7x FCF.
If Talen signs more data center contracts and power prices rise, Dan Dreyfus projects $70/share FCF at a 15x multiple, implying a $1,050 stock price.
Oleg Nodelman cited GLP-1 obesity drugs as one of the best longevity drugs available, since caloric restriction is the only thing proven in data to extend life.
There has been $15 billion in M&A and deal-making in the radiotherapy sector in recent years, with major pharma players actively building capabilities.
GEODNET has 22,000 base stations in 150 countries covering 80% of the global population — built in 4 years using a crypto incentive model where anyone can earn GEO tokens by hosting a node. It powers John Deere, DJI, TomTom, and robotic lawn mowers, and trades at $150M fully diluted on $11M ARR growing 3x YoY.
Chapter 5 · 40:20
Kyle Samani pitches GEODNET — the world's largest decentralized RTK network — covering 80% of the global population with 22,000 nodes, $11M ARR growing 3x annually, and 80% revenue used to buy back GEO tokens.
GEODNET has 22,000 base stations deployed across 150 countries covering over 80% of the global population in just 3-4 years.
GEODNET buys $8.8M worth of GEO tokens on the open market every year — 80% of all revenue — from customers like John Deere and DJI. At a $150M fully diluted market cap growing 3x annually, it's an astonishingly cheap asset that barely anyone in traditional finance is watching.
GEODNET just crossed $11 million in annualized run-rate revenue, growing more than 3x year over year, with 80% of revenue used to buy back tokens.
GEODNET's fully diluted market cap is approximately $150 million on $11M in current annualized revenue growing 3x per year — a very low valuation multiple for a fast-growing network.
The average GEODNET customer spends $60K/year in year one and grows to $170K/year by year two — roughly a 3x increase in annual revenue per customer.
Chapter 6 · 54:50
Chamath, Jason, Friedberg, and guest Gavin Baker give feedback and rank the pitches. The audience of 150 gives 50% to Talen; the bestie vote flips the result and MGM wins.
The audience of 150 investors gave 50% of votes to Talen Energy's Dan Dreyfus. But the bestie vote flipped the result: MGM's Aaron Cowen won on downside protection (Barry's bid) plus Japan and Dubai upside. GeoNet placed last on liquidity concerns; Aktis and GeoNet are lottery tickets, MGM and Talen are sizeable bets.
No indexed bits in this chapter.
Talen Energy trades at a $25B enterprise value versus a $45B replacement cost. At 7x free cash flow on a $50/share FCF base, with comparable infrastructure at 15x, the equity should more than double just doing nothing. If power prices rise and data center deals accelerate, you get $1,050.
Barry Diller's $48/share bid provides a floor, but MGM's real upside is a $2B EBITDA Osaka casino opening in 2030 and 300,000 sq ft of dark casino space in Dubai. Aaron Cowen says the stock could hit $100-$150 from the current high $40s.
This episode
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
Barry Diller owns 26% of MGM Resorts and has placed a formal bid at $48 per share.
MGM Resorts has bought back approximately half of its float over the past 6 years.
Japan's gambling market is approximately $40 billion, larger than Macau ($30B) and Las Vegas ($10B).
MGM owns a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan opening in 2030, in which they own a 40% stake and receive a management fee.
Talen Energy has 2 gigawatts of nuclear power and 6 gigawatts of natural gas baseload power.
Talen Energy trades at a $25 billion enterprise value versus a $45 billion replacement cost.
China currently has 3 times the power generation capacity of the United States, having reversed a position where the US had 2x China's capacity.
The PJM grid operator forecasts a need for 106 gigawatts of new power in just the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland region over the next 10 years.
Microsoft signed a 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor at $100/MWh, double the market rate of $50/MWh.
Jensen Huang was recently quoted saying we need 1,000 times more power than we currently have.
EcoR1 Capital has generated a 10x return for investors since its 2013 inception, compounding at 20% annually, growing from $13M to $2.5B AUM.
Aktis Oncology's $300 million IPO was 18 times oversubscribed and received a $100 million backstop order from Eli Lilly.
There has been $15 billion in radiotherapy M&A and deal-making in recent years, with major pharma including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer, and Lilly actively building radiotherapy pipelines.
Caloric restriction is the only intervention shown in actual data to extend lifespan, and GLP-1 obesity drugs effectively mimic caloric restriction.
GEODNET was founded in 2021, has 22,000 base stations deployed in 150 countries covering 80% of the global population, making it the world's largest RTK network.
GEODNET has crossed $11 million in annualized run-rate revenue and is growing more than 3x year over year.
GEODNET uses 80% of its revenue — approximately $8.8 million annually — to buy GEO tokens on the open Solana market.
GEODNET's fully diluted market cap is approximately $150 million, with circulating market cap shown on price sites around $60-70 million due to unvested tokens.
Aktis Oncology's actinium radioisotope payload is derived from radium-233, a US Cold War nuclear waste product not available in China due to its different nuclear program history.
The Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas generates $1 million per day in incremental EBITDA when a show is running at the Sphere.
This episode
Media and entertainment mogul who has accumulated 26% of MGM Resorts and made a formal $48/share takeover bid, seen as a financial buyer targeting MGM's Asian casino assets.
Pitched by Aaron Cowen as a hidden Asian casino play with Japan and Dubai optionality on top of a Barry Diller bid providing a valuation floor.
Pitched by Kyle Samani as the world's largest decentralized RTK precision-location network, trading at $150M fully diluted with $11M ARR growing 3x per year.
Pitched by Dan Dreyfus as a nuclear and gas power producer trading at a steep discount to replacement cost in an AI-driven power supercycle.
Pitched by Oleg Nodelman as a radiopharmaceutical biotech with a billion-dollar market cap, key clinical data due in 2027, and Eli Lilly as a strategic backer.
A flagship GEODNET customer, using the RTK network to power autonomous spraying systems (GUS) and other precision agriculture equipment.
The world's largest drone manufacturer and a key GEODNET customer, integrating RTK precision into many of its drone models.
San Francisco-based value-oriented biotech fund founded by Oleg Nodelman in 2013, managing $2.5B with a 10x track record at 20% annualized returns.
Backstopped Aktis Oncology's IPO with a $100M order and is one of several large pharma companies building radiotherapy capabilities and hungry for pipeline assets.
Signed a 20-year PPA at $100/MWh — double market rate — to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor via Constellation Energy for Azure data center power.
Crypto-focused venture fund co-founded by Kyle Samani, which led investments in Solana and GEODNET and was seeded by David Sacks.
MGM's main competitor as one of the two largest casino asset owners in Las Vegas; cited as having recently been taken out in an acquisition, signaling improving Vegas market sentiment.
Owner of the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor that was restarted under a 20-year PPA with Microsoft Azure at $100/MWh.
Aaron Cowen's $4B generalist hedge fund based in New York, formerly associated with George Soros and Steve Cohen, pitching MGM Resorts.
A mapping and navigation company that is a GEODNET customer, using the RTK data to improve map accuracy for autonomous vehicle programs.
Competitor to MGM opening a casino in Al Marjan, UAE in approximately 2 years, which could accelerate pressure on Dubai to legalize gambling near MGM's existing property.
One of the major pharma companies cited as actively building radiotherapy pipeline capabilities and participating in the $15B in recent radiotherapy M&A.
The blockchain network on which GEO tokens trade and on which GEODNET's token buyback transactions are publicly verifiable; Kyle Samani led all three of Multicoin's pre-launch Solana investments.
MGM is building a property in Dubai with 300,000 sq ft of dark casino space, representing a free option on future gambling legalization in the UAE.
The only Japanese prefecture to approve a casino; MGM holds the license for a casino opening there in 2030, valued at ~$50/share in Aaron Cowen's thesis.
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