Podbit · Freakonomics Radio
NFL coaches were systematically too risk-averse on fourth down — and Frank Frigo built an analytics model, rooted in backgammon decision theory, to prove it. The model was licensed to about 12 teams. The Eagles and Chiefs, who used it most, won Super Bowls.
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At 23:08 · chapter starts 17:40
Frigo's two world titles — separated by 29 years — are themselves a story about emotional maturation. In 1994, he was physically fresh and technically strong but hadn't yet been tested by close, gut-wrenching matches; in 2023, he leaned on decades of practice turning the page after devastating swings, celebrating each moment rather than letting the pressure accumulate. Between those wins, Frigo channeled his backgammon thinking into a real-world analytics firm. Watching NFL coaches reflexively punt on fourth down struck him as the same kind of risk-averse blunder he'd learned to exploit at the backgammon board. He and experimental physicist Chuck Bauer built a full simulation model of NFL games — running clock, penalties, scoring increments — and found that coaches were giving up even more expected value than their initial hypothesis suggested. They began licensing the model to NFL teams; eventually about 12 teams used it. The Eagles adopted it most completely, with buy-in from owner Jeff Lurie down to head coach Doug Pederson. The Chiefs' Andy Reid consulted it via analyst Mike Frazier during games. Frigo directly credits the model as a contributing factor in both franchises' Super Bowl victories.
Frank Frigo won the World Backgammon Championship in 1994 and again in 2023 — a 29-year span that he credits to improved emotional resilience rather than raw skill.
Frank Frigo won the World Backgammon Championship in 1994 and then again in 2023 — 29 years later. The difference wasn't skill; it was the ability to handle emotional swings, turn the page after bad beats, and stay focused on the present position.
Chess gives you certainty: the best move is always either right or wrong. Backgammon gives you probability. Frank Frigo argues that this makes backgammon a superior model for business and social decisions, where outcomes are always uncertain and you're managing distributions of risk.
Frank Frigo's analytics firm, inspired by backgammon theory, licensed its fourth-down decision model to approximately 12 NFL teams.
Frank Frigo directly attributed the Philadelphia Eagles' and Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl victories in part to the application of backgammon-derived analytics.
Thomas's wife deferred her CrossFit career — she's in the global top 1% of athletes — to put him through law school debt-free. He wants her to chase the dream now; she wants the emergency fund and house down payment first. On a $200K lawyer income with no debt, the opportunity cost is just a few months of slower saving.
Underground calisthenics battles are exactly like UFC meets a rap battle — 150 people crowded around a circle, fighters walking out with masks and chains, nicknames like 'Extra Money' vs 'Calisthenics the Prince,' and people throwing money and betting. The battle set: 100 burpees, 50 muscle-ups, 75 dips, 75 squats with a 65-pound dumbbell. This is the next big spectator sport.
Rico Verhoeven controlled the undisputed heavyweight boxing champion for approximately 10 rounds — and had his appeal upheld when officials admitted the fight was stopped after the bell. The result was never overturned. Rogan calls it either incompetence or corruption, and argues the money behind Usyk made an upset politically inconvenient.
Rogan lays out a blunt case: boxing's 3-judge system is structurally broken, and the judges know who the promoter wants to win. Glory's 5-judge format is the right model. Corruption doesn't have to be conscious — just knowing Usyk is the cash cow is enough to tilt the scales.
With the Usyk-Wilder fight stalling and Fury-Joshua coming too late, the real fight the world wants is the rematch. Rico is a free agent. Usyk vacated his belts. The story is unfinished and both Rogan and Rico know it. His Excellency Turki Alasheikh already called for it ringside — the question is money.
Rico texted Jason Statham during the Canelo-Crawford fight. Statham showed Rico's highlight videos to promoters. Two days later, Rico was on a call about fighting Anthony Joshua. When Joshua pulled out, Rico pitched Usyk himself — Undisputed vs. Undisputed. Usyk said yes in two weeks. The whole thing started with one text.
Every heavyweight who faced Usyk tried to move to the right — straight into his power hand. Rico and Peter Fury identified the obvious solution: move left, away from the left hand, and smother him with size. It sounds simple. Nobody had done it. That one adjustment was the foundation of 10 dominant rounds.
MMA fans boo when fights go to the ground. They love stand-up. Kickboxing is pure stand-up. Yet it barely exists in America while boxing and MMA are enormous. Rogan's diagnosis: no promotion machine. If the UFC got behind kickboxing the way they've built MMA, it would explode. The talent is there — the storytelling machine is not.
A nation of 17 million people gave the world Ramon Deckers, Peter Aerts, Badr Hari, Melvin Manhoef, Rob Kamen, Ernesto Hoost, and Rico Verhoeven. Rico's theory: the country is so small that every gym shares knowledge freely. In the US, you need a flight. In Holland, you drive 40 minutes and spar the national champion.
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