Where this was said
Path Dependence: How Historical Pollution Still Shapes Cities Today
At 19:47 · chapter starts 19:10
The most troubling finding from Hiblik's 'East Side Story' research isn't the historical sorting — it's that the sorting has intensified over time. One standard deviation more historical pollution corresponds to a 20% higher share of low-skilled workers in a neighborhood today, compared to 15% in the Victorian era. Hiblik explains this through path dependence: pollution drew the poor east, then highways cut off the east side, school funding fell, building quality declined, and crime rose — each factor reinforcing the last in a classic snowball effect. Test scores in historically high-pollution east sides are lower, and crime rates are higher. The causal question remains open: did pollution impair cognition directly, or did it simply sort lower-income people into those areas? That question is exactly what the next section of the episode sets out to resolve.
One standard deviation increase in historical coal pollution corresponded to 15% higher share of low-skilled workers in a neighborhood in the past; today that effect has grown to 20%, suggesting path dependence.
