Sherrod Brown +8 favorability in Ohio
Sherrod Brown has a +8 favorable rating in Ohio, a Trump state that Trump won by 11 points, yet he is still down 3 points in the Senate race.
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North Carolina, Texas, and the Future Democratic Map
At 1:01:40 · chapter starts 1:01:30
Jon and Dan briefly pivot to the two states where Democrats have the most structural tailwinds. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper is up 7 with a D+6 generic ballot — a state Trump only narrowly won in 2024 — while running a quiet, high-name-ID campaign that benefits from not attracting national attention or MAGA counter-mobilization. Dan observes that Cooper is actually only barely outrunning the generic ballot, meaning the environment itself is carrying him. In Texas, James Talarico is tied with Ken Paxton despite Texas being a state Trump won by 13 points, partly because Paxton's many personal and legal scandals are dragging down the Republican ticket — a dynamic that mirrors Maine, where candidate quality is affecting results in both directions. Jon argues that North Carolina and Texas are not just this cycle's opportunities but the long-term future for Democratic Senate coalitions, because unlike Ohio and Iowa, they have large and growing populations of young and Latino voters whose political participation is still being unlocked.
The Ohio Problem: Sherrod Brown Can't Grow His Vote
Sherrod Brown has a +8 favorable rating in a state Trump won by 11. Yet he's down 3 in the polls — and getting almost exactly the same share of white non-college voters he got in 2024. The voters who are leaving Trump simply don't vote in midterms in Ohio.
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