China organic food forecast: $31B by 2028
China's organic food market is forecast to reach $31 billion by 2028, roughly doubling from 2022 levels.
Snapshot · The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Apple's China Chip Play, DeepSeek Seeking Billions, and the Californication of Chinese Food
Explore episode
Jun 30, 2026
Where this was said
China as the World's Organic Food Market: Supply Side & Global Ambitions
At 47:00 · chapter starts 45:40
Alice Han makes the bullish case for China's organic food market, arguing it is more promising than the luxury goods market because cultural values have shifted — people prefer to 'live well and eat well' over conspicuous consumption of foreign luxury brands. China is already the world's third-largest organic consumer market, with the organic farming area doubling in a decade (from under 0.4% to 0.7% of total farmland) and a forecast to reach $31 billion by 2028, roughly doubling from 2022 [1] — Alice Han "China organic food forecast: $31B by 2028: China's organic food market is forecast to reach $31 billion by 2028, roughly doubling from 2022…" 47:00 . The supply side is equally impressive: a Norwegian-linked aquaculture company farms salmon in land-based tanks in Zhejiang; Yunnan is becoming a global blueberry and avocado hub; Alibaba's Fresh Hippo operates direct-to-consumer organic food chains; and Chinese kiwis have already undercut Italian kiwi farmers in Piedmont while Chinese-sourced dried porcini mushrooms now dominate European packaging [2] — Alice Han "China is competing out Italian kiwi farmers in Piedmont, supplying most of Europe's dried porcini mushrooms from Yunnan, and growing salmon…" 47:20 . Alice Han argues China is in the first innings of becoming a global agricultural superpower, not just an industrial one — a development with major implications for global food trade and agricultural exporting nations.
China now world's #3 organic market
China is now the third-largest organic product consumption market in the world and could eventually become the largest given its middle-class population.
China organic farmland doubled in decade
China's organic farming area doubled in the decade to 2024, from less than 0.4% to 0.7% of total farmland, though significant room for growth remains.
China as an Emerging Agricultural Superpower
China is competing out Italian kiwi farmers in Piedmont, supplying most of Europe's dried porcini mushrooms from Yunnan, and growing salmon in land-based tanks in Zhejiang. Alice Han argues China is in the first innings of becoming a major global agricultural power, not just an industrial one.
James Kynge's Prediction: China Begins Exporting Inflation
James Kynge predicts that China will begin consistently exporting inflation globally within months, driven by AI chip price pressures and oil markets. For heavily indebted European countries, this could force interest rate hikes and significantly increase debt service costs.
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