BetterHelp's 2026 State of Stigma report found 85% of 2,000 Americans surveyed believe getting mental health support is wise, but 74% think society discourages people from doing so.
197. Vance Vs Hegseth: Who Takes the Fall for Trump’s Iran Deal?
A Republican senator told Katty Kay the US-Iran deal is "ludicrous, ill-informed, fantastical" — and intelligence suggests Iran's hardline IRGC is more consolidated than before the war.
The Rest Is Politics: US
197. Vance Vs Hegseth: Who Takes the Fall for Trump’s Iran Deal?
A Republican senator told Katty Kay the US-Iran deal is "ludicrous, ill-informed, fantastical" — and intelligence suggests Iran's hardline IRGC is more consolidated than before the war.
TL;DR
Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci dissect the US-Iran deal signed by Trump in Versailles, arguing it is worse than the Obama-era agreement and amounts to "negotiating the terms of America's surrender" [1] — Katty Kay "America has just negotiated the terms of its surrender and trying to explain that when you're running for president of the United States in…" 23:20 — with 13 Americans dead, $80 billion spent on the war, and Iran's IRGC reportedly stronger than before [2] — Katty Kay "$80B spent on Iran war: The United States spent $80 billion on the military campaign against Iran before signing the deal at Versailles." 12:20 . They debate whether JD Vance or Pete Hegseth will become the fall guy. The second half examines Vance's new memoir, Communion, finding it a cynical platform for 2028 ambitions rather than genuine spiritual growth [3] — Katty Kay "On The View, JD Vance jokes about being at a 'MAGA Republican show,' apologizes for the cat lady comment, and bats away hard questions with…" 35:00 . Key takeaway: political inauthenticity is fatal in an era when voters crave it most.
Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci analyse the US-Iran deal signed at Versailles, debate whether JD Vance or Pete Hegseth will be Trump's fall guy, and dig into JD Vance's new memoir Communion and its role as a 2028 campaign staging book.
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Before the hosts appear, a pair of sponsor reads set the commercial frame. BetterHelp's ad leads with its 2026 State of Stigma report — 2,000 Americans surveyed, 85% saying support is wise, 74% saying society pushes back against it — and offers listeners 10% off via betterhelp.com/TRIPUS. Tremfya follows with a detailed medical disclosure about its self-injection and infusion options for moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, along with a full risk rundown. A separate ad for Peyronie's disease awareness (talkaboutpd.com) also runs before the hosts take the mic.
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The hosts burst onto the mic with Scaramucci doing his best Trump impression — 'what the hell is going on, Catty?' — before Katty Kay lays out the episode's agenda. First half: the US-Iran deal, which Katty argues is significantly worse than Obama's, signed with great pomp at the Palace of Versailles with Macron in attendance and a visibly pained Marco Rubio hovering behind. Second half: JD Vance's new book Communion, and what his media blitz reveals about his 2028 presidential ambitions. To ease into the Iran analysis, Katty produces a prop Kleenex box — her 'time machine' — and invites Scaramucci to inhabit the role of White House Communications Director once more and make the case for the deal.
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Katty's time machine conceit pays off in spades as Scaramucci channels his 2017 self — and immediately breaks character. He calls for Ativan, mocks Howard Lutnick's visible discomfort at the press conference, delivers a blistering impression of Trump saying Hamas kids are 'born with machine guns,' and notes a stunned Marco Rubio. The punchline comes fast: he declares the deal 'terrible' and Katty promptly fires him again, noting he didn't even last 11 seconds. The joke lands because it is also an analysis — there is no way to defend this deal with a straight face, not even for the man who once tried to defend everything.
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Scaramucci's Lincoln-vs-Trump contrast crystallises the core dysfunction: a president whose inner circle reflects his self-image rather than challenging it. He reports watching Fox News all morning and finding hosts citing Wall Street Journal condemnations of the deal — not a trivial observation, since the right-wing media ecosystem rarely breaks from Trump this openly. His prediction: the deal won't even survive Trump's cable news habits, three days at most in the study off the Oval Office. The joke has real stakes. He also begins threading a historical argument about the Middle East — every negotiation for 110 years has publicly claimed to be about peace while actually being about oil, choke points, and basing rights.
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With the role-play behind them, Scaramucci goes historical. He reaches back to the 1916 Sykes-Picot Treaty — the secret Anglo-French carve-up of the Middle East that created the tribal borders the region is still living with — and argues that nothing has fundamentally changed. The language of self-determination and stability has always been a fig leaf for resource allocation. And Trump, standing in Versailles, was no exception: he had already told the world earlier this year that America had plenty of oil and needed no one's, and then pivoted to crisis warnings about running dry within weeks. Katty adds the Herbert Hoover dimension: Trump is telling us his inner fears out loud at the press conference.
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Scaramucci pauses his historical sweep to express something closer to personal bewilderment: Jamie Dimon, whom he calls one of the smartest and most principled people in finance, was sitting to Trump's left at the signing table and got his camera out to photograph the moment. Dimon and JPMorgan are actively being sued by Trump. Scaramucci admits he gets Schwarzman of Blackstone being there, but Dimon? Katty offers a charitable explanation — perhaps even Dimon was momentarily awed by the gold and the grandeur of the Palace of Versailles. But both agree: all he needed to do was read the document.
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Katty pivots to what becomes the analytical centerpiece of the Iran segment. Trump emptied the Washington DC reflecting pool, painted it American flag blue, reopened it to great ceremony — and six days later it was full of algae. She traces the five-step pattern: announce you'll solve a problem no one else managed; ignore why predecessors failed; grab any quick solution off the shelf; fail spectacularly; refuse to acknowledge failure. She maps every step onto Iran — and the reflecting pool, and Ukraine, and the trade deficit. The American taxpayer picks up the bill each time. On Iran, the bill includes $80 billion spent on the war and a $300 billion reconstruction commitment, with no competitive tender anywhere in the process.
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With the deal's failures established, Scaramucci asks the essential next question: who gets blamed? He puts Hegseth in the frame first — the man who went to the podium daily to lie about the war's progress, rebuked journalists for negative coverage, and showed Trump Hollywood-style montages of explosions on an iPad. Republicans are burning with rage at the gap between those iPad briefings and what military commanders were actually advising. But Katty shifts the target to Vance: the Vice President is out on American television — including Fox — telling audiences that Iran is a normal country that has abandoned 47 years of 'Death to America.' The wood chipper metaphor, which the hosts introduced months ago, gets its sharpest application yet.
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Katty delivers the most damning material of the Iran segment: a direct conversation with a Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee who has reviewed recent intelligence. His three-word verdict — 'ludicrous, ill-informed, fantastical' — lands hard. What the intelligence shows is worse: the IRGC, Iran's hardline elite force, is more consolidated and in control than at the start of the war. Iran is not becoming Switzerland. The day-one injection of cash from oil sales will flow directly into weaponry, putting American allies at greater risk. The MOU that has been signed, Katty says, actively hurts American national security. Scaramucci adds the Kushner framing: Jared Kushner has always believed you can override any ideology with a business deal, from Palestinian condos in the first term to Iranian partnerships now.
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Scaramucci lays out the Iranian playbook: negotiate when the pressure gets uncomfortable, secure sanctions relief, stabilise the regime, then wait. They have no electoral clock; America does. Every administration has fallen for this. He invokes Scott Anderson's book King of Kings about the Shah's fall, opening with a CIA report from March 1979 calling the regime 'durable, long-term, and sustainable' — just six months before total collapse. America got it wrong with the 1953 Mosaddegh coup, wrong by propping up the Shah, wrong by missing the theocratic revolution, and wrong again now. The bombs don't work either: bankrupt Iran just becomes more fanatical. What's needed, he argues, is genuine empathy for the adversary's worldview — American centrism doesn't travel well to Tehran.
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Rubio's studied silence becomes its own story. Katty Kay and Mark Polymeropoulos have both noticed: the Secretary of State has gone radio silent because he is hoping the Iran deal becomes Vance's political obituary, not his own. Trump made this explicit to Fox's Peter Doocy at the Versailles press conference: if the deal fails, he'll pin it on JD. Scaramucci argues Rubio's only brave move six months ago was resignation — like Senator Cassidy calling this the worst foreign policy blunder in decades — but Rubio won't do brave things. His best play now is to work Susie Wiles for a graceful exit before Trump humiliates him. Katty closes the section with a bleak arithmetic: 13 Americans dead, 500 injured, Iran stronger, $80 billion spent, and now a $300 billion reconstruction bill.
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Before pivoting to JD Vance's book, the hosts take a sponsored break to plug their own membership product. Scaramucci notes it's a special day in both the UK and US, and Katty details the 25% Father's Day discount on annual gift memberships, which include ad-free listening, exclusive founding members Q&As, members-only miniseries, and early ticketing access to live shows. Listeners are directed to therestispoliticsus.com to click on gifts.
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The mid-roll break carries two ads: a repeat of the Peyronie's disease awareness spot directing men to visit talkaboutpd.com to understand their treatment options, and a new ad for Sally, a college scholarship and loan platform aimed at parents seeking smarter options for financing their children's higher education, directing listeners to Sally.com/go-parents.
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Katty frames the book's significance: Hillbilly Elegy made Vance, and Communion is his bid to remake himself. The new memoir traces his spiritual odyssey and his wife Usha's role in bringing him to weekly Catholic practice. Scaramucci read both books and compared writing styles; he finds Vance genuinely authored Communion and admires the prose. But the analysis is damning. Vance claims in the book that Catholicism has reanchored him away from material ambition — yet he wrote it from the Vice President's mansion, hired Trump's deputy chief of staff to replace his own, and secured White House sign-off before publication. The spiritual journey and the political manoeuvre are happening simultaneously, and the manoeuvre is winning. Scaramucci's verdict: read it if you want to understand this man, because he might end up as president.
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The book tour is where Vance's strategy becomes most legible — and most contradictory. On The View, he opens with a joke about being told by his comms team it's a 'MAGA Republican show,' bats away questions about immigration and detention with polished ease, and apologizes for the 2021 'cat lady' comment that called liberal women without children the ruin of America. In the same week, on Fox, he dismisses Congressional Democrats as 'terrible people.' Katty's reading is sharp: in 2021 it was politically expedient to perform full anti-woke MAGA; in 2026, with female voter numbers underwater, it's expedient to apologize. This isn't moral growth. It's market research. The problem is that voters can sense the calculation even when they can't name it.
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Scaramucci opens his annotated comparison of the two books. In Hillbilly Elegy, Vance wrote that his family's problems were not created by governments or corporations. In Communion, the line is reversed: they were. He also traces Vance's intellectual lineage through Ayn Rand and Peter Thiel — Atlas Shrugged libertarianism — and now a pivot to populist protectionism. The arc is not a journey; it's a series of ideological costume changes driven purely by the ambient political temperature. Scaramucci compares it to Hillary Clinton switching from a Cubs hat to a Yankees hat depending on which city she's in. You can't do that. Katty adds the Zelensky moment as the clearest evidence of the 'real' Vance: the man who berated a wartime leader in the Oval Office and slammed America's allies at Munich is not the self-deprecating View guest.
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The conversation arrives at its philosophical center. Katty argues that Trump's brand is built on a coherent, if bizarre, authenticity: he has always said contradictory things, always flopped positions, and always done so without shame. That shamelessness is itself genuine. Vance, by contrast, is doing the same thing but trying to clothe it in a narrative of spiritual discovery and family values. The clothes don't fit. Scaramucci agrees: you're almost better off saying 'my brand is that I'm unanchored' — that at least is honest. Vance's authentic self, Katty suggests, is simply a man who wants to be president more than anything else. If he'd just say that, it might actually work. But he won't.
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Scaramucci steps back and asks for the objective tear sheet: what does the average American voter think of JD Vance? Katty's answer is that most don't have a settled opinion yet, which is exactly why he's doing this book tour. But the emerging opinion — anchored by the Zelensky dressing-down and the Munich speech — is not flattering. And the data confirms it: Vance was leading 2028 Republican nomination polls but is now sinking fast while Rubio rises. Scaramucci explains why: Rubio is simply more cunning. When Vance played to the Trump audience at Munich, Rubio played to the European room — and when he got hammered for it by Trump, he learned to shut up. Rubio's unanchored too, but he's not trying to pretend otherwise. That's a different kind of political intelligence.
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Scaramucci's closing move is characteristically lateral. He invokes Spike Lee at a Knicks game wearing a Pope Leo jersey — signed by the Pope himself — and argues that if you're JD Vance or Marco Rubio and you're not paying attention to that image, you're missing something important. Both men have strained relationships with the Pope. There are 70 million Catholics in America. A 2% swing in the right swing states is a presidency. The book, ostensibly about finding faith, should be the vehicle to capture that vote. Instead, people see through the malarkey, Scaramucci says. The hosts close with a preview of a planned summer series on Vance for founding members.
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The episode closes with the running gag of Scaramucci being extracted from the Kleenex-box time machine, fired as Communications Director once more, and sending Sarah Huckabee Sanders back to governing Arkansas. Katty signs off warmly before a post-roll ad for Zazzle, the custom merchandise marketplace, which touts 30 million customers over 20 years and offers 25% off a first order at Zazzle.com.
- IRGC
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — Iran's elite ideological military force, distinct from the regular army, which controls key economic and security sectors and is designated a terrorist organisation by the US.
- Sykes-Picot Treaty
- A secret 1916 agreement between Britain and France to divide the Middle East into spheres of influence after World War I, widely blamed for creating the region's modern political borders and enduring tribal conflicts.
- Mosaddegh
- Mohammad Mosaddegh, Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister overthrown in a 1953 CIA- and MI6-backed coup after he nationalised Iran's oil industry — a grievance still central to Iranian political identity.
- MOU
- Memorandum of Understanding — a non-binding framework agreement between parties outlining intended terms before a formal treaty; the hosts suggest the US-Iran deal is effectively at this stage.
- MAGA
- Make America Great Again — the political movement and brand associated with Donald Trump, now used to describe the ideological wing of the Republican Party aligned with Trump's populist-nationalist agenda.
- YOLO caucus
- Informal label for Republican legislators who, having nothing left to lose politically (often because they have retired or lost a primary), speak openly against Trump's positions.
- Janis Joplin caucus
- Jeffrey Goldberg's term at The Atlantic for Republicans freed by political irrelevance to speak candidly, drawn from Kris Kristofferson's lyric 'Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.'
- Hillbilly Elegy
- JD Vance's 2016 bestselling memoir about growing up in Appalachian Ohio; it became a touchstone for understanding white working-class economic despair and the rise of Trump.
- Naval Observatory
- The official residence of the Vice President of the United States, located in Washington DC — referenced to puncture Vance's claim of having his ambition 'in check.'
- kabuki theater
- A highly stylised form of Japanese classical theatre; used figuratively to describe performances that are elaborate and choreographed but lack genuine substance or sincerity.
- disinhibiting
- The process of losing normal social or psychological restraints; used by Scaramucci to describe Trump making increasingly unguarded public statements that reveal his anxieties.
- fanaticism
- Extreme, uncritical devotion to a cause, used in the episode specifically to describe Iran's theocratic revolutionary ideology as something no business deal can dissolve.
- theocratic
- Relating to a system of government in which religious leaders or institutions hold political authority; applied to Iran's Islamic Republic.
- Ativan
- Brand name for lorazepam, a prescription anti-anxiety benzodiazepine medication — invoked humorously by Scaramucci to signal the stress of defending the Iran deal.
- acolyte
- A devoted follower or assistant of a leader or ideology; used to describe how Vance and Peter Thiel adopted Ayn Rand's libertarian philosophy.
- perfunctory
- Carried out with minimal effort and little care; used implicitly in the episode's critique of Trump's approach to complex diplomatic and infrastructure problems.
- hubris
- Excessive pride or self-confidence, especially when it leads to downfall; Katty Kay's central framing for Trump's approach to Iran, Ukraine, and domestic projects alike.
Chapter 1 · 00:00
Sponsor: BetterHelp and Tremfya Ads
Before the hosts appear, a pair of sponsor reads set the commercial frame. BetterHelp's ad leads with its 2026 State of Stigma report — 2,000 Americans surveyed, 85% saying support is wise, 74% saying society pushes back against it — and offers listeners 10% off via betterhelp.com/TRIPUS. Tremfya follows with a detailed medical disclosure about its self-injection and infusion options for moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, along with a full risk rundown. A separate ad for Peyronie's disease awareness (talkaboutpd.com) also runs before the hosts take the mic.
Claims made here
BetterHelp's 2026 State of Stigma report found that 85% of 2,000 Americans surveyed believe getting mental health support is wise.
Despite 85% believing support is wise, 74% of Americans think society discourages people from seeking mental health help, per BetterHelp's 2026 report.
Chapter 2 · 02:02
Welcome and Show Overview: Iran Deal, Versailles, and Vance's Book
The hosts burst onto the mic with Scaramucci doing his best Trump impression — 'what the hell is going on, Catty?' — before Katty Kay lays out the episode's agenda. First half: the US-Iran deal, which Katty argues is significantly worse than Obama's, signed with great pomp at the Palace of Versailles with Macron in attendance and a visibly pained Marco Rubio hovering behind. Second half: JD Vance's new book Communion, and what his media blitz reveals about his 2028 presidential ambitions. To ease into the Iran analysis, Katty produces a prop Kleenex box — her 'time machine' — and invites Scaramucci to inhabit the role of White House Communications Director once more and make the case for the deal.
Claims made here
The US-Iran deal signed at Versailles is significantly worse than the nuclear deal Barack Obama negotiated over a decade ago.
Trump signed the US-Iran deal at the Palace of Versailles with Emmanuel Macron seated beside him and Marco Rubio standing silently behind him.
Chapter 3 · 04:50
Communications Director Role Play: Selling the Unsellable Iran Deal
Katty's time machine conceit pays off in spades as Scaramucci channels his 2017 self — and immediately breaks character. He calls for Ativan, mocks Howard Lutnick's visible discomfort at the press conference, delivers a blistering impression of Trump saying Hamas kids are 'born with machine guns,' and notes a stunned Marco Rubio. The punchline comes fast: he declares the deal 'terrible' and Katty promptly fires him again, noting he didn't even last 11 seconds. The joke lands because it is also an analysis — there is no way to defend this deal with a straight face, not even for the man who once tried to defend everything.
Lincoln surrounded himself with adversaries who challenged him. Trump has built a hall of mirrors where every aide reflects his self-image back at him. Versailles, the gilded palace of royal narcissism, turns out to be the perfect venue for signing Trump's deals.
Chapter 4 · 06:55
Trump's Hall of Mirrors and the Fox News Reaction
Scaramucci's Lincoln-vs-Trump contrast crystallises the core dysfunction: a president whose inner circle reflects his self-image rather than challenging it. He reports watching Fox News all morning and finding hosts citing Wall Street Journal condemnations of the deal — not a trivial observation, since the right-wing media ecosystem rarely breaks from Trump this openly. His prediction: the deal won't even survive Trump's cable news habits, three days at most in the study off the Oval Office. The joke has real stakes. He also begins threading a historical argument about the Middle East — every negotiation for 110 years has publicly claimed to be about peace while actually being about oil, choke points, and basing rights.
Claims made here
Fox News hosts cited the Wall Street Journal's criticism of the Iran deal as 'absolutely horrific.'
Anthony Scaramucci argued that the Sykes-Picot Treaty, signed over 110 years ago, created tribal disputes whose consequences the Middle East still lives with today.
Chapter 5 · 09:05
Middle East History and the Real Motive Behind Every Deal
With the role-play behind them, Scaramucci goes historical. He reaches back to the 1916 Sykes-Picot Treaty — the secret Anglo-French carve-up of the Middle East that created the tribal borders the region is still living with — and argues that nothing has fundamentally changed. The language of self-determination and stability has always been a fig leaf for resource allocation. And Trump, standing in Versailles, was no exception: he had already told the world earlier this year that America had plenty of oil and needed no one's, and then pivoted to crisis warnings about running dry within weeks. Katty adds the Herbert Hoover dimension: Trump is telling us his inner fears out loud at the press conference.
Trump's reflecting pool turned green with algae six days after its ceremonial reopening — and that's not a trivial detail. It's the operating system. Announce you'll solve a problem no one else could, ignore why predecessors failed, grab the quickest solution available, fail spectacularly, and never admit it. He's done it with the pool, with Iran, and with the country.
Chapter 6 · 10:15
Jamie Dimon at Versailles: What Is He Doing There?
Scaramucci pauses his historical sweep to express something closer to personal bewilderment: Jamie Dimon, whom he calls one of the smartest and most principled people in finance, was sitting to Trump's left at the signing table and got his camera out to photograph the moment. Dimon and JPMorgan are actively being sued by Trump. Scaramucci admits he gets Schwarzman of Blackstone being there, but Dimon? Katty offers a charitable explanation — perhaps even Dimon was momentarily awed by the gold and the grandeur of the Palace of Versailles. But both agree: all he needed to do was read the document.
Claims made here
Trump's restored reflecting pool in Washington DC filled with algae within six days of its ceremonial reopening.
Trump's flagship reflecting pool renovation — painted American flag blue — filled with algae just six days after its ceremonial reopening.
Chapter 7 · 10:50
The Reflecting Pool Metaphor: Trump's Five-Step Governance Playbook
Katty pivots to what becomes the analytical centerpiece of the Iran segment. Trump emptied the Washington DC reflecting pool, painted it American flag blue, reopened it to great ceremony — and six days later it was full of algae. She traces the five-step pattern: announce you'll solve a problem no one else managed; ignore why predecessors failed; grab any quick solution off the shelf; fail spectacularly; refuse to acknowledge failure. She maps every step onto Iran — and the reflecting pool, and Ukraine, and the trade deficit. The American taxpayer picks up the bill each time. On Iran, the bill includes $80 billion spent on the war and a $300 billion reconstruction commitment, with no competitive tender anywhere in the process.
Claims made here
Trump did not put the reflecting pool renovation out for competitive tender, instead awarding it to a contact who does swimming pools for his golf courses.
The US spent $80 billion on the military campaign against Iran before the deal was signed.
The US-Iran deal includes American contributions to a $300 billion reconstruction program for Iran.
Chapter 8 · 12:55
Hegseth vs Vance: Who Takes the Fall?
With the deal's failures established, Scaramucci asks the essential next question: who gets blamed? He puts Hegseth in the frame first — the man who went to the podium daily to lie about the war's progress, rebuked journalists for negative coverage, and showed Trump Hollywood-style montages of explosions on an iPad. Republicans are burning with rage at the gap between those iPad briefings and what military commanders were actually advising. But Katty shifts the target to Vance: the Vice President is out on American television — including Fox — telling audiences that Iran is a normal country that has abandoned 47 years of 'Death to America.' The wood chipper metaphor, which the hosts introduced months ago, gets its sharpest application yet.
Pete Hegseth told America it was winning a holy war. He made cinematic videos of things being blown up and showed them to Trump in cabinet meetings on an iPad. Republicans are furious because those Hollywood-style briefings bore no relationship to what military commanders on the ground were actually advising. The gap between the show and the strategy was enormous.
Chapter 9 · 15:00
Senate Intelligence and the IRGC: Why the Deal Makes America Less Safe
Katty delivers the most damning material of the Iran segment: a direct conversation with a Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee who has reviewed recent intelligence. His three-word verdict — 'ludicrous, ill-informed, fantastical' — lands hard. What the intelligence shows is worse: the IRGC, Iran's hardline elite force, is more consolidated and in control than at the start of the war. Iran is not becoming Switzerland. The day-one injection of cash from oil sales will flow directly into weaponry, putting American allies at greater risk. The MOU that has been signed, Katty says, actively hurts American national security. Scaramucci adds the Kushner framing: Jared Kushner has always believed you can override any ideology with a business deal, from Palestinian condos in the first term to Iranian partnerships now.
Claims made here
A Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee privately called the US-Iran deal 'ludicrous, ill-informed, fantastical.'
Intelligence seen by a Republican Foreign Relations Committee senator indicates the IRGC is more hardline and consolidated now than at the start of the Iran war.
A Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee told Katty Kay the intelligence picture is damning: the IRGC, Iran's most hardline force, is more consolidated and in control now than when the war started. The deal's premise — that Iran is a normal country ready for business — is fantasy. The first cash injection from oil sales will go straight to weapons.
A Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee called the US-Iran deal ludicrous, ill-informed, and fantastical in a private conversation.
Intelligence seen by a Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee indicates the IRGC is more consolidated and hardline now than at the start of the war.
Iran's strategy for 47 years has been simple: negotiate to relieve sanctions pressure, pocket the relief, and preserve the regime. They don't have an electoral clock. They measure time in decades, not news cycles. Every American administration — from Carter to Trump — has fallen for the same play.
Chapter 10 · 18:10
The Iranian Playbook: Waiting Out American Electoral Clocks for 47 Years
Scaramucci lays out the Iranian playbook: negotiate when the pressure gets uncomfortable, secure sanctions relief, stabilise the regime, then wait. They have no electoral clock; America does. Every administration has fallen for this. He invokes Scott Anderson's book King of Kings about the Shah's fall, opening with a CIA report from March 1979 calling the regime 'durable, long-term, and sustainable' — just six months before total collapse. America got it wrong with the 1953 Mosaddegh coup, wrong by propping up the Shah, wrong by missing the theocratic revolution, and wrong again now. The bombs don't work either: bankrupt Iran just becomes more fanatical. What's needed, he argues, is genuine empathy for the adversary's worldview — American centrism doesn't travel well to Tehran.
Claims made here
A CIA security report from March 1979 called the Shah's Iranian regime 'durable, long-term, and sustainable'; six months later, the Shah fell.
Jared Kushner genuinely believes you can do a business deal with any regime and it will override their ideology. During the first term he said giving Palestinians shiny condos would fix the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Now he thinks a cash injection will make Iran abandon 47 years of 'Death to America.' Both times, spectacularly wrong.
In March 1979, a CIA report called the Shah's regime 'durable, long-term, and sustainable.' Six months later, America was in crisis. Before that: the 1953 coup against Mosaddegh. After that: propping up the Shah. Then missing the revolutionary fanaticism. Now signing a deal in Versailles. The pattern is unbroken and spans seven decades.
Chapter 11 · 20:55
Rubio's Radio Silence and the 2028 Positioning Game
Rubio's studied silence becomes its own story. Katty Kay and Mark Polymeropoulos have both noticed: the Secretary of State has gone radio silent because he is hoping the Iran deal becomes Vance's political obituary, not his own. Trump made this explicit to Fox's Peter Doocy at the Versailles press conference: if the deal fails, he'll pin it on JD. Scaramucci argues Rubio's only brave move six months ago was resignation — like Senator Cassidy calling this the worst foreign policy blunder in decades — but Rubio won't do brave things. His best play now is to work Susie Wiles for a graceful exit before Trump humiliates him. Katty closes the section with a bleak arithmetic: 13 Americans dead, 500 injured, Iran stronger, $80 billion spent, and now a $300 billion reconstruction bill.
Claims made here
Trump said at the Iran deal press conference that if the deal fails, he would pin the blame on JD Vance.
13 Americans died and 500 were injured during the military campaign against Iran that preceded the deal.
Marco Rubio hasn't said a word about the Iran deal. It's not an accident. He's watching JD Vance become the fall guy in real time, and he wants the distance. The president himself said at the press conference that if the deal fails, he'll pin it on Vance. Rubio read the room before the room was even fully set.
At least 13 Americans died and 500 were injured during the military campaign against Iran that preceded the deal.
Alongside 13 American deaths, 500 US service members were injured during the conflict with Iran that led to the Versailles deal.
Chapter 12 · 24:10
Father's Day Membership Ad Break
Before pivoting to JD Vance's book, the hosts take a sponsored break to plug their own membership product. Scaramucci notes it's a special day in both the UK and US, and Katty details the 25% Father's Day discount on annual gift memberships, which include ad-free listening, exclusive founding members Q&As, members-only miniseries, and early ticketing access to live shows. Listeners are directed to therestispoliticsus.com to click on gifts.
The Rest Is Politics US is offering a 25% discount on annual gift memberships for Father's Day.
Chapter 14 · 27:30
JD Vance's 'Communion': What the Book Really Is
Katty frames the book's significance: Hillbilly Elegy made Vance, and Communion is his bid to remake himself. The new memoir traces his spiritual odyssey and his wife Usha's role in bringing him to weekly Catholic practice. Scaramucci read both books and compared writing styles; he finds Vance genuinely authored Communion and admires the prose. But the analysis is damning. Vance claims in the book that Catholicism has reanchored him away from material ambition — yet he wrote it from the Vice President's mansion, hired Trump's deputy chief of staff to replace his own, and secured White House sign-off before publication. The spiritual journey and the political manoeuvre are happening simultaneously, and the manoeuvre is winning. Scaramucci's verdict: read it if you want to understand this man, because he might end up as president.
JD Vance's breakout memoir Hillbilly Elegy was published approximately 10 years ago and propelled him from obscurity to the Senate and then the vice presidency.
Anthony Scaramucci read JD Vance's new memoir Communion and compared it line by line to Hillbilly Elegy. The verdict: it's a staging book for his presidential run, green-lit by Trump's inner circle, with a fake spiritual anchor. Vance even hired Trump's deputy chief of staff to replace his own — signalling he's running full MAGA.
Anthony Scaramucci counted that JD Vance has morphed his political positions five or six times in pursuit of his presidential ambitions.
Chapter 15 · 31:10
The View vs Fox: Two JD Vances, One Inauthenticity Problem
The book tour is where Vance's strategy becomes most legible — and most contradictory. On The View, he opens with a joke about being told by his comms team it's a 'MAGA Republican show,' bats away questions about immigration and detention with polished ease, and apologizes for the 2021 'cat lady' comment that called liberal women without children the ruin of America. In the same week, on Fox, he dismisses Congressional Democrats as 'terrible people.' Katty's reading is sharp: in 2021 it was politically expedient to perform full anti-woke MAGA; in 2026, with female voter numbers underwater, it's expedient to apologize. This isn't moral growth. It's market research. The problem is that voters can sense the calculation even when they can't name it.
Claims made here
JD Vance's 'cat lady' comment, made in 2021, described liberal women without children as ruining America.
JD Vance hired one of Trump's deputy chiefs of staff to replace his own chief of staff, signalling he is running for president in 2028 with Trump's MAGA team.
In 2021, JD Vance said liberal women without kids are ruining America — it was politically useful then. Now his poll numbers with women are underwater, so he goes on The View to apologize and play the cuddly dad. This isn't a man having a moral awakening. This is a man A/B testing his brand with the electorate.
Chapter 16 · 35:00
Vance's Contradictions in the Text: Ayn Rand, Protectionism, and the Family Problems Flip
Scaramucci opens his annotated comparison of the two books. In Hillbilly Elegy, Vance wrote that his family's problems were not created by governments or corporations. In Communion, the line is reversed: they were. He also traces Vance's intellectual lineage through Ayn Rand and Peter Thiel — Atlas Shrugged libertarianism — and now a pivot to populist protectionism. The arc is not a journey; it's a series of ideological costume changes driven purely by the ambient political temperature. Scaramucci compares it to Hillary Clinton switching from a Cubs hat to a Yankees hat depending on which city she's in. You can't do that. Katty adds the Zelensky moment as the clearest evidence of the 'real' Vance: the man who berated a wartime leader in the Oval Office and slammed America's allies at Munich is not the self-deprecating View guest.
On The View, JD Vance jokes about being at a 'MAGA Republican show,' apologizes for the cat lady comment, and bats away hard questions with a smile. Then he goes on Fox and calls Congressional Democrats 'terrible people.' These are not two facets of the same man. These are two performances. And voters can tell the difference.
Chapter 17 · 39:20
Trump's Authentic Inauthenticity vs Vance's Inauthentic Inauthenticity
The conversation arrives at its philosophical center. Katty argues that Trump's brand is built on a coherent, if bizarre, authenticity: he has always said contradictory things, always flopped positions, and always done so without shame. That shamelessness is itself genuine. Vance, by contrast, is doing the same thing but trying to clothe it in a narrative of spiritual discovery and family values. The clothes don't fit. Scaramucci agrees: you're almost better off saying 'my brand is that I'm unanchored' — that at least is honest. Vance's authentic self, Katty suggests, is simply a man who wants to be president more than anything else. If he'd just say that, it might actually work. But he won't.
Claims made here
JD Vance was leading polls for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination but is now sinking while Marco Rubio is rising.
JD Vance was leading polls for the 2028 Republican nomination but is sinking fast while Marco Rubio is rising, according to polling and betting markets.
Chapter 18 · 42:10
2028 Scoreboard: Vance Sinking, Rubio Rising, Polls Confirming It
Scaramucci steps back and asks for the objective tear sheet: what does the average American voter think of JD Vance? Katty's answer is that most don't have a settled opinion yet, which is exactly why he's doing this book tour. But the emerging opinion — anchored by the Zelensky dressing-down and the Munich speech — is not flattering. And the data confirms it: Vance was leading 2028 Republican nomination polls but is now sinking fast while Rubio rises. Scaramucci explains why: Rubio is simply more cunning. When Vance played to the Trump audience at Munich, Rubio played to the European room — and when he got hammered for it by Trump, he learned to shut up. Rubio's unanchored too, but he's not trying to pretend otherwise. That's a different kind of political intelligence.
Spike Lee wore a Pope Leo Knicks jersey — signed by the Pope himself — at a game. If you're JD Vance or Marco Rubio and you're not paying attention to that symbolism, you should be. Both men need the Catholic vote. Both men have problems with the Pope. Seventy million Catholic voters, a 2% swing in the swing states — that is a presidency.
There are 70 million Catholic voters in America, and a 2% swing among Catholics in swing states could decide the 2028 election.
No indexed bits in this chapter.
Show stoppers
Snapshots ()
Key Quotes ()
This episode
Cast
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US President who signed the Iran deal at Versailles and is depicted as seeking a scapegoat while revealing his political anxieties in public.
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Vice President and 2028 Republican frontrunner whose new memoir 'Communion' and Iran deal defence are central to the episode.
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Secretary of State who has gone conspicuously silent on the Iran deal, seen as positioning for a 2028 presidential run.
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Defense Secretary accused of lying about the Iran war's progress and showing Trump cinematic iPad briefings unconnected to military reality.
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Credited by JD Vance as a brilliant Iran negotiator but criticised for believing business deals can override ideology.
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Track
JPMorgan CEO who attended the Versailles signing despite being sued by Trump, photographing Trump signing the deal.
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French President who was seated next to Trump during the Versailles deal signing.
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Referenced as having brokered a better Iran nuclear deal than Trump's Versailles agreement, and criticised by Trump as 'stupid or weak.'
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Cabinet official whose facial expressions and gesticulations during Trump's press conference drew Scaramucci's scorn.
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Current Pope whose relationship with both Vance and Rubio is described as strained, potentially hurting their appeal to Catholic voters.
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Republican senator who called the Iran deal the worst foreign policy blunder in decades and invoked Reagan rolling in his grave.
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Oscar-winning director and New York Knicks fan who wore a Pope Leo jersey to a game, which Scaramucci read as a symbol of the Catholic vote's political importance.
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Track
CEO of Blackstone who attended the Versailles signing ceremony.
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Paired with Jared Kushner as the lead negotiators of the US-Iran deal.
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White House Chief of Staff whom Scaramucci suggests Rubio should work with to engineer a graceful exit from the administration.
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Publication whose editor Jeffrey Goldberg coined the 'Janis Joplin caucus' term for Republican legislators freed to speak against Trump.
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JD Vance's new memoir about his journey from Protestantism through atheism to Catholicism, analysed as a 2028 campaign staging book.
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JD Vance's 2016 debut memoir that launched his political career; Scaramucci compared its writing style to Communion.
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Subject of the nuclear deal signed at Versailles; described as having a strengthened IRGC and unchanged theocratic ideology post-war.
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Historic French royal palace where Trump staged the signing of the US-Iran deal.
Stats
This episode
Claims & Sources
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
The US-Iran deal signed at Versailles is significantly worse than the nuclear deal Barack Obama negotiated over a decade ago.
The US spent $80 billion on the military campaign against Iran before the deal was signed.
The US-Iran deal includes American contributions to a $300 billion reconstruction program for Iran.
13 Americans died and 500 were injured during the military campaign against Iran that preceded the deal.
Intelligence seen by a Republican Foreign Relations Committee senator indicates the IRGC is more hardline and consolidated now than at the start of the Iran war.
A Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee privately called the US-Iran deal 'ludicrous, ill-informed, fantastical.'
A CIA security report from March 1979 called the Shah's Iranian regime 'durable, long-term, and sustainable'; six months later, the Shah fell.
Fox News hosts cited the Wall Street Journal's criticism of the Iran deal as 'absolutely horrific.'
JD Vance hired one of Trump's deputy chiefs of staff to replace his own chief of staff, signalling he is running for president in 2028 with Trump's MAGA team.
Trump said at the Iran deal press conference that if the deal fails, he would pin the blame on JD Vance.
JD Vance's 'cat lady' comment, made in 2021, described liberal women without children as ruining America.
BetterHelp's 2026 State of Stigma report found 85% of 2,000 Americans surveyed believe getting mental health support is wise, but 74% think society discourages people from doing so.
Trump did not put the reflecting pool renovation out for competitive tender, instead awarding it to a contact who does swimming pools for his golf courses.
Trump's restored reflecting pool in Washington DC filled with algae within six days of its ceremonial reopening.
JD Vance was leading polls for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination but is now sinking while Marco Rubio is rising.