The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

Tobias Carlisle argues that collectively, market valuation metrics are at their most overvalued point in the entire dataset — and the smart bet is now small and micro value stocks, not AI mega-caps.

Jun 20, 2026 58:18 Difficulty: Intermediate Played

TL;DR

Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds, joins Excess Returns to make the case for a major rotation into small-cap and deep value stocks after a decade-long large-cap growth cycle. Market valuations are at their most stretched on record, AI capex may ultimately benefit consumers rather than investors, and mega-IPOs like SpaceX signal potential cycle tops. The single most actionable takeaway: if you believe in mean reversion, the smart bet right now is small and micro value.

#deep value investing #small cap value #AI infrastructure spending #market cycle rotation #Acquirer's Multiple #SpaceX IPO #semiconductor valuations #energy demand AI #equal-weight index #timing luck rebalancing #Gartner hype cycle #base rate analysis #systematic ETF strategy #large cap growth bubble #value investing #small cap #micro cap #AI capex #market valuation #Shiller PE #mean reversion #equal weight #deep value #semiconductors #energy stocks #nuclear power #systematic investing #ETF rebalancing #Mag 7 #Anthropic #OpenAI #ZIG DEEP ETF

Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today's market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. Topics include stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.

Chapter list
  • Tobias Carlisle teases his core thesis — AI value may go to consumers, not creators — then is welcomed back to Excess Returns. Hosts introduce his ZIG and DEEP ETFs.

  • Carlisle reviews 6-7 valuation metrics all at historic extremes. Overvaluation signals lower forward returns, not an immediate exit — the real opportunity is in cheap pockets like small and micro value.

  • Small caps have quietly outperformed Mag 7 over the last 12 months. Carlisle tracks equal-weight vs. cap-weight indexes and the S&P 100 vs. 500 as barometers of a leadership rotation.

  • Comparing AI to fiber optic and railway buildouts, Carlisle notes AI hardware lasts only 5-7 years vs. 25+ years for prior infrastructure. Gartner hype cycle dynamics are in play.

  • Hosts debate whether AI profits accrue to companies or consumers. Carlisle says competition will commoditize models, eventually making AI just another cost of doing business for every company.

  • Carlisle argues AI capex is more discretionary than it looks, citing Google raising $80B and Meta's metaverse pivot. The stock market — not consumers — is demanding compute investment.

  • Three of the largest IPOs ever are coming at once. Carlisle wonders if SpaceX marks the cycle top, noting a sharp small-value vs. large-growth swing on the day of its debut.

  • Mauboussin's base rate paper showed OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented; Anthropic's actual growth then obliterated those projections. Time Magazine's AI cover may signal a market top.

  • Carlisle argues that large-cap tech companies keep breaking historical growth base rates, but speculation is rife. Individually and collectively, S&P 500 names are expensive.

  • Kai Wu's research shows value has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the tech boom. Carlisle explains the earnings recession in small/micro from 2022-2025 and why it's bottoming.

  • Energy is at 3% of market cap vs. 12% historically. Carlisle sees energy as a contrarian play. The end of the war may re-ignite the small/international/value rotation that paused earlier this year.

  • Energy is at 3% of market cap vs. 12% historically. Carlisle sees energy as a contrarian play. The end of the war may re-ignite the small/international/value rotation that paused earlier this year.

  • Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers.

  • Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers.

Acquirer's Multiple
A valuation metric developed by Tobias Carlisle that divides enterprise value (including debt, cash, and minority interests) by operating earnings, designed to identify undervalued takeover targets.
Shiller PE (CAPE)
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio: the stock market's price divided by 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings, used to assess whether the overall market is over- or undervalued.
Tobin's Q
A valuation metric comparing the market value of a company or the entire market to the replacement cost of its assets; a ratio above 1 suggests overvaluation.
Equal-weight index (RSP)
A version of an index like the S&P 500 where every constituent stock is given the same portfolio weighting, regardless of its market capitalization; outperforms market-cap-weight when smaller stocks lead.
Mean reversion
The statistical tendency for extreme values — like high stock valuations or growth rates — to return toward their long-term historical average over time.
Hyperscalers
Very large technology companies (e.g. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) that operate massive cloud and computing infrastructure at global scale.
CapEx (Capital Expenditure)
Funds spent by a company to acquire, upgrade, or maintain physical assets like data centers, servers, or infrastructure; in the AI context, refers to the massive spending on computing hardware.
Gartner Hype Cycle
A framework by research firm Gartner that maps the maturity and adoption of technologies through phases: innovation trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, and plateau of productivity.
S-curve
The characteristic growth pattern of new technologies or markets: slow initial adoption, rapid growth in the middle, then saturation as the market matures.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
A valuation method that estimates the present value of a company by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today at an appropriate rate.
OEF
The iShares S&P 100 ETF, which tracks the 100 largest US stocks; Carlisle uses the OEF/SPY ratio as a barometer for whether large- or mid-cap stocks are leading the market.
GFC
Global Financial Crisis; refers to the 2007–2009 financial crisis centered on US mortgage markets that caused a severe global recession and a roughly 57% drawdown in the S&P 500.
Special purpose vehicle (SPV)
A separate legal entity created by a company to isolate financial risk or carry debt off its main balance sheet, sometimes used by tech companies to fund large infrastructure projects.
Foie gras (forced feeding)
Carlisle uses this metaphor to describe how SpaceX will be force-fed into S&P 500 index funds, requiring passive funds to buy shares simply because of index inclusion rules.
Timing luck
The impact that the arbitrary choice of a rebalancing date has on returns; a concept popularized by Corey Hoffstein, describing how a portfolio rebalanced in March 2009 would have dramatically outperformed one rebalanced in September 2009.
Terminal value
In a DCF model, the estimated value of a company beyond the explicit forecast period, often representing the majority of total calculated value for high-growth companies.
Hedonic treadmill
The psychological tendency for people to return to a baseline level of satisfaction after positive or negative events; Carlisle uses it to describe how society quickly normalizes and stops being impressed by new technologies.
Bifurcated market
A market where two distinct groups of securities — e.g. large-cap growth and small-cap value — are moving in opposite directions, creating extreme performance divergence between them.
Base rates
Statistical reference points from historical data used to calibrate expectations; in investing, base rates describe how often companies of a certain size or type have achieved specific growth milestones.
Parabolic
Describing a price or earnings chart that accelerates upward at an increasing rate, resembling the curve of a parabola; often associated with unsustainable speculative moves.

Chapter 1 · 00:00

Why AI value may accrue to consumers

Tobias Carlisle teases his core thesis — AI value may go to consumers, not creators — then is welcomed back to Excess Returns. Hosts introduce his ZIG and DEEP ETFs.

Chapter 2 · 04:00

What extreme market valuations say about future returns

Carlisle reviews 6-7 valuation metrics all at historic extremes. Overvaluation signals lower forward returns, not an immediate exit — the real opportunity is in cheap pockets like small and micro value.

Claims made here

All 6-7 major market valuation metrics tracked by Advisor Perspectives are simultaneously at their most overvalued level in the entire historical dataset.

Tobias Carlisle Advisor Perspectives website (tracks 6-7 market valuation metrics including Shi…

Business
Market Valuations Are at Their Most Extreme Ever — What That Actually Means

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

Every major market valuation metric is simultaneously at its most overvalued in the historical dataset — but that doesn't mean you should exit the market. Overvaluation signals lower forward returns and volatility, not an immediate crash. The real opportunity is in the parts of the market that haven't been bid up.

Chapter 3 · 08:22

Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal

Small caps have quietly outperformed Mag 7 over the last 12 months. Carlisle tracks equal-weight vs. cap-weight indexes and the S&P 100 vs. 500 as barometers of a leadership rotation.

Claims made here

Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 both year-to-date and over the last 12 months.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) has outperformed the market-cap-weight S&P 500 for most of the period since at least 1990, except during notable large-cap growth booms.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

The dot-com large-cap growth dominance period ran from approximately 2000 to 2015, followed by a value market, then another large-cap growth market from 2015 to the present.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

The value-growth valuation spread is currently in the 95th percentile, meaning it has only been wider on 5% of historical occasions.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Business
Small Caps Are Already Beating Mag 7 — And Most Investors Don't Know It

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 over both the last 12 months and year-to-date — a narrative violation almost nobody is talking about. Equal-weight indexes, small caps, and value are all signaling the same thing: a market leadership shift away from large-cap growth may already be in progress.

Chapter 4 · 14:15

AI capex and lessons from past technology booms

Comparing AI to fiber optic and railway buildouts, Carlisle notes AI hardware lasts only 5-7 years vs. 25+ years for prior infrastructure. Gartner hype cycle dynamics are in play.

Claims made here

AI computing hardware has a useful life of approximately 5-7 years, compared to 25+ years for fiber optic cables and railways.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Chapter 5 · 19:47

Who gets the profits from AI?

Hosts debate whether AI profits accrue to companies or consumers. Carlisle says competition will commoditize models, eventually making AI just another cost of doing business for every company.

Chapter 6 · 23:00

Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race

Carlisle argues AI capex is more discretionary than it looks, citing Google raising $80B and Meta's metaverse pivot. The stock market — not consumers — is demanding compute investment.

Claims made here

Google is raising $80 billion in external capital to fund AI infrastructure, despite historically being one of the most cash-rich companies.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Meta spent approximately $12 billion on metaverse development before reversing course and abandoning the initiative.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Chapter 7 · 28:06

SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply

Three of the largest IPOs ever are coming at once. Carlisle wonders if SpaceX marks the cycle top, noting a sharp small-value vs. large-growth swing on the day of its debut.

Claims made here

On the day after SpaceX launched on the market, large-cap growth rallied approximately 3% while small value dropped approximately 2%, a 5% swing that erased half of small value's prior outperformance.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Business
SpaceX IPO, Time Magazine Cover, and the Market Top Signal

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

Three signals are converging that may mark the top of the AI boom: the SpaceX IPO is forcing the S&P 500 to absorb a massive new entrant, OpenAI and Anthropic seeking $80 billion are pulling liquidity from the market, and Time Magazine just put AI on the cover — the same indicator that called 'death of equities' in 1979.

Chapter 8 · 31:00

OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin's base rates

Mauboussin's base rate paper showed OpenAI's growth projections would be unprecedented; Anthropic's actual growth then obliterated those projections. Time Magazine's AI cover may signal a market top.

Claims made here

Michael Mauboussin published a paper showing OpenAI's projected growth would be unprecedented in corporate history, and Anthropic's actual growth subsequently obliterated even those projections.

Jack Michael Mauboussin's base rates paper on OpenAI growth projections

Amazon achieved approximately 80% revenue growth in a year when it was already generating around $100 billion in revenue during the pandemic.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Chapter 9 · 35:17

Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?

Carlisle argues that large-cap tech companies keep breaking historical growth base rates, but speculation is rife. Individually and collectively, S&P 500 names are expensive.

Claims made here

Investor over-excitement during technology booms has occurred at least six identifiable times in history — the telegraph, railway, electronics, dot-com, and AI booms among them.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

History
Technology Booms Always End the Same Way — Six Times in History

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 History

The pattern is the same every time: telegraph, railways, electronics, dot-com, and now AI. Investors get too excited, bid up picks-and-shovels sellers alongside the technology itself, and eventually everything returns to earth. The human behavioral response has never changed, even as the technology itself has transformed.

Chapter 10 · 37:57

Value investing during disruptive technology cycles

Kai Wu's research shows value has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the tech boom. Carlisle explains the earnings recession in small/micro from 2022-2025 and why it's bottoming.

Business
Value Investing During Disruption: The Key Distinction

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

Value investing has worked consistently in non-disrupted industries throughout the current tech boom — the underperformance is concentrated in disrupted sectors. The challenge is identifying disrupted industries in advance. For non-disrupted businesses trading at discounts, value metrics have been remarkably reliable.

Business
Energy: 3% of Market Cap vs. 12% Historical — An Overlooked Opportunity?

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

Energy stocks represent just 3% of market cap versus a 12% historical average. AI data centers will consume energy voraciously, and Carlisle thinks nuclear is the only long-term solution — though natural gas bridges the gap. Oil equities are doing the opposite of what everyone expects right now.

Chapter 11 · 44:11

War, energy prices and the broadening trade

Energy is at 3% of market cap vs. 12% historically. Carlisle sees energy as a contrarian play. The end of the war may re-ignite the small/international/value rotation that paused earlier this year.

Claims made here

Energy stocks currently represent approximately 3% of stock market capitalization versus a historical average of approximately 12%.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Chapter 13 · 47:50

How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios

Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers.

Claims made here

China's top AI models were considered the best value option globally as of approximately one year prior to the recording, while US models led on raw capability.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Semiconductors as a group were trading at 55 times earnings, implying 75% of the sector's value is in terminal value beyond 10 years and requiring 16.5% annual growth for a decade.

Justin Verdad research

Business
How Carlisle Builds the ZIG and DEEP Portfolios

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

The process is grounded entirely in financial statements: look at what a company earns on assets, its reinvestment rate, and its payout policy over 5-10 years. Combine with the Acquirer's Multiple (which includes balance sheet items) to find the best risk-adjusted opportunities. Equal weight everything because you can't know in advance which names will deliver.

Chapter 14 · 54:17

ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing

Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers.

No indexed bits in this chapter.

Show stoppers

Business
SpaceX IPO, Time Magazine Cover, and the Market Top Signal

The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the A… · Jun 20, 2026 Business

Three signals are converging that may mark the top of the AI boom: the SpaceX IPO is forcing the S&P 500 to absorb a massive new entrant, OpenAI and Anthropic seeking $80 billion are pulling liquidity from the market, and Time Magazine just put AI on the cover — the same indicator that called 'death of equities' in 1979.

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3 / 15 cited (20%)

Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.

All 6-7 major market valuation metrics tracked by Advisor Perspectives are simultaneously at their most overvalued level in the entire historical dataset.

Tobias Carlisle Advisor Perspectives website (tracks 6-7 market valuation metrics including Shi…

Small caps have outperformed the Magnificent 7 both year-to-date and over the last 12 months.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

The value-growth valuation spread is currently in the 95th percentile, meaning it has only been wider on 5% of historical occasions.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

AI computing hardware has a useful life of approximately 5-7 years, compared to 25+ years for fiber optic cables and railways.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

The dot-com large-cap growth dominance period ran from approximately 2000 to 2015, followed by a value market, then another large-cap growth market from 2015 to the present.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Google is raising $80 billion in external capital to fund AI infrastructure, despite historically being one of the most cash-rich companies.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Meta spent approximately $12 billion on metaverse development before reversing course and abandoning the initiative.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Michael Mauboussin published a paper showing OpenAI's projected growth would be unprecedented in corporate history, and Anthropic's actual growth subsequently obliterated even those projections.

Jack Michael Mauboussin's base rates paper on OpenAI growth projections

Amazon achieved approximately 80% revenue growth in a year when it was already generating around $100 billion in revenue during the pandemic.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Semiconductors as a group were trading at 55 times earnings, implying 75% of the sector's value is in terminal value beyond 10 years and requiring 16.5% annual growth for a decade.

Justin Verdad research

The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) has outperformed the market-cap-weight S&P 500 for most of the period since at least 1990, except during notable large-cap growth booms.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Energy stocks currently represent approximately 3% of stock market capitalization versus a historical average of approximately 12%.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

Investor over-excitement during technology booms has occurred at least six identifiable times in history — the telegraph, railway, electronics, dot-com, and AI booms among them.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

China's top AI models were considered the best value option globally as of approximately one year prior to the recording, while US models led on raw capability.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

On the day after SpaceX launched on the market, large-cap growth rallied approximately 3% while small value dropped approximately 2%, a 5% swing that erased half of small value's prior outperformance.

Tobias Carlisle no source cited

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